Examining Three Years of NFL Preseason Betting Data and Resulting Strategies

Data from DraftKings covering the 2023 through 2025 NFL preseason periods reveals consistent patterns in how public bettors performed against the spread and on totals, according to an analysis by VSiN’s Steve Makinen. The review focuses on situations where the betting public held a majority position, measured both by handle percentage and by number of bets, and tracks outcomes across multiple seasons leading into the upcoming 2026 campaign.

Key Performance Metrics Across Recent Preseasons

Public majorities on point spreads recorded win rates between 44 and 46 percent against the spread during the three-year window, while totals betting produced stronger results in several subsets that reached 55 to 64 percent. These figures emerge from aggregated handle and ticket data rather than isolated game samples, which allows observers to identify repeatable edges when large portions of the betting pool align on one side. Makinen’s breakdown separates the data by both volume of money wagered and sheer number of individual bets, highlighting cases where sharp action diverged from public sentiment.

Because the preseason schedule features rotated rosters and limited playing time for starters, line movement often reflects public money more directly than in regular-season markets. The three-year sample therefore supplies a controlled environment for testing systems that fade or follow consensus figures, and the results remain consistent enough to support structured approaches for 2026.

Twelve Systems Derived from the Splits

Makinen distilled the findings into twelve specific betting systems intended for the 2026 preseason. Several systems center on fading large public majorities on the spread side whenever handle and ticket percentages both exceed defined thresholds, while others recommend following public totals trends when those same percentages align with historically profitable outcomes. The systems differentiate between early-week and late-week betting windows, account for home versus road favorites, and incorporate adjustments based on whether the majority stems from high-handle or high-volume bettors.

One system, for instance, triggers when public handle on a side surpasses 70 percent yet the number-of-bets percentage sits below 55 percent, indicating concentrated money that historically underperforms. Another system monitors totals where public majorities exceed 60 percent on the over and have produced above-average success rates in the prior three seasons. Each rule set includes explicit parameters for stake sizing and entry timing, allowing systematic application across the four-week preseason slate that begins in August 2026.

Data Sources and Measurement Approach

The underlying dataset draws exclusively from DraftKings markets, which provides standardized closing lines and detailed splits unavailable in many other sportsbooks. Makinen tracked every preseason game across the three seasons and recorded the percentage of handle and the percentage of bets on each side at market close. This dual metric prevents over-reliance on either money-weighted or ticket-weighted signals alone, and the resulting systems reflect situations where both indicators point in the same direction or diverge sharply.

Additional context comes from line-movement records that show how early public bets influenced closing numbers before sharp bettors responded. The combination of splits data and movement patterns supplies the foundation for the twelve systems, each calibrated to exploit the documented underperformance on spreads and relative strength on totals.

Application Timeline for 2026

Implementation of the systems begins with the first 2026 preseason games in August and continues through the final week before the regular season. Bettors following the framework receive guidance on monitoring both handle and number-of-bets percentages released daily by DraftKings, then applying the corresponding system rules without deviation. The approach avoids discretionary overrides, relying instead on the historical frequencies observed between 2023 and 2025.

Because the systems operate on percentages rather than absolute dollar figures, they scale across different market sizes and remain applicable even if overall handle volumes shift in 2026. Observers tracking the same DraftKings data feed can replicate the signals in real time as lines stabilize each week.

Conclusion

The three-year review of DraftKings NFL preseason splits supplies a documented record of public performance on spreads and totals, together with twelve rule-based systems that translate those patterns into actionable 2026 guidelines. The analysis remains confined to measurable handle and bet-count percentages, offering a structured reference point for anyone examining preseason betting markets when the schedule resumes in August.