Prediction Markets Gain Ground: Survey Shows 15% of Americans Trading Sports Contracts, Edging Closer to Sportsbook Users

A fresh survey out in April 2026 paints a striking picture of how prediction markets like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood have woven themselves into the fabric of American betting habits, with 15% of respondents reporting they've snapped up sports event contracts on these platforms—a number that's inching ever closer to the 27% who maintain active sportsbook accounts.

Researchers behind the ASFS 2026 Release 2 - Sports Betting study dug into this trend, revealing not just the raw participation figures but also the momentum building since last year; participation in sports betting overall has climbed steadily from 2024 levels, while awareness of gambling issues among friends and family has nearly doubled in that same span.

What's interesting here is how prediction markets, once a niche corner of the betting world, now rival traditional sportsbooks in reach, especially as platforms make it dead simple to trade contracts on everything from NFL outcomes to March Madness upsets; people who've jumped in often cite the allure of yes/no propositions that feel more like informed guesses than pure gambles.

Demographics tell a clear story: avid sports fans lead the charge at 42% participation, while men aged 18-49 clock in at 33%, numbers that underscore how these groups, already hooked on game-day action, find prediction markets a natural extension of their routines; observers note that younger men, in particular, gravitate toward the data-driven vibe of platforms like Kalshi, where contracts trade in real time based on crowd wisdom and news flashes.

And it's not just casual fans; take the case of one group of enthusiasts tracked in the survey who treated Super Bowl futures like stock picks, buying contracts early and cashing out as odds shifted—behavior that's become commonplace as apps integrate seamless wallets and push notifications for every market twist.

But here's the thing: this growth doesn't happen in a vacuum, since regulatory shifts and mainstream ads have normalized event contracts alongside point spreads and player props, blurring lines that once separated stock-like trading from straight wagering.

Alongside the uptake, the survey flags serious red flags around betting behaviors that echo patterns seen in sportsbooks, with 63% of prediction market users admitting they've dropped at least $100 in a single day, 60% confessing to chasing losses after bad runs, and 42% acknowledging they wager more than they know they should; these figures, drawn from thousands of respondents, highlight how the thrill of trading outcomes can spiral quickly, much like overextending on a hot streak at the book.

Experts who've pored over the Covers.com report on the findings point out that such habits often start small—maybe a $10 contract on a Thursday night game—but snowball as users reinvest winnings or double down to recoup, a cycle that's all too familiar to those monitoring gambling trends.

Turns out, the platforms' gamified interfaces, complete with leaderboards and instant settlements, amplify these risks, since users feel the pull to stay engaged long after the event wraps; one researcher highlighted a cluster of respondents who described logging multiple daily sessions, treating markets like a second job rather than a side bet.

Notably, 73% of those surveyed back regulating prediction markets on par with sportsbooks, a sentiment that reflects broader unease even as participation swells; people who've watched acquaintances grapple with betting debts often push for caps on deposits, mandatory cooling-off periods, and clearer disclosures on contract risks—measures already standard in states like New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

So why the support? Data indicates that firsthand exposure to problems drives this, with the near-doubling of gambling issue awareness since 2024 making folks more vocal; regulators, in turn, have taken note, as seen in ongoing CFTC discussions about classifying certain contracts as swaps versus bets, a distinction that could reshape the landscape overnight.

• 15% overall participation in prediction markets for sports events.
• 27% with active sportsbook accounts—closing the gap fast.
• 42% among avid sports fans; 33% for men 18-49.
• 63% wagered $100+ in one day; 60% chased losses.
• 42% feel they bet too much; 73% want sportsbook-like rules.

These stats, pulled straight from the ASFS survey, don't lie: prediction markets have arrived, but with baggage that demands attention; those who've studied parallel rises in crypto trading see echoes, where easy access fueled booms and busts alike.

Participation hasn't spiked overnight; instead, sports betting engagement has ratcheted up consistently from 2024, fueled by app store ubiquity and partnerships with leagues that once shunned gambling; prediction markets rode this wave, evolving from election odds darlings to sports staples, with volumes on platforms like Polymarket rivaling mid-tier books during playoffs.

Yet the doubling in problem-gambling awareness among acquaintances adds a sobering layer, as friends and family spot signs like secretive app checks or mood swings tied to market swings; programs like 1-800-GAMBLER have reported upticks in calls from event-contract traders, underscoring that the rubber meets the road when wins dry up.

Now, as April 2026 surveys like this one drop, platforms face a crossroads: lean into growth with better safeguards, or risk backlash that could clip their wings; users, meanwhile, navigate a space where a savvy contract pick can pay off big, but the house—or the market—always has an edge.

The ASFS 2026 findings crystallize a pivotal moment for prediction markets, where 15% adoption signals mainstream traction yet pairs with stark behavioral concerns that 73% want addressed through regulation; as sportsbooks hold at 27%, the convergence hints at a unified betting ecosystem, one that's grown steadily since 2024 while shining a brighter light on risks like loss-chasing and over-wagering.

Observers tracking this space anticipate more data drops throughout 2026, but for now, the message rings clear: popularity surges, yet responsibility can't lag behind; those dipping into Polymarket or Kalshi contracts would do well to heed the survey's lessons, balancing the excitement of event trading with habits that keep things sustainable long-term.